Predicting who will need costly care : how best to target preventive health, housing and social programmes.

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This paper was commissioned by the UK government's Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG) as part of its National Strategy for Housing in an Ageing Society.
As the population ages, the prevalence of complex conditions requiring intensive social care will increase to a point where the costs are difficult to sustain. To avoid this crisis, preventive 'upstream' interventions should be targeted at those people at lower, emerging risk. Evidence suggests that these interventions could avoid future admissions to care homes. This study argues that a predictive tool could be developed to effectively focus resources and preventive measures in tackling this problem. [Introduction]
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